Bihar Assembly Election Dates Announced: A Look at the Political Landscape
The Bihar Assembly elections are set to be held in two phases on November 6th and 11th, with results declared on November 14th. This election marks the shortest election process yet for Bihar, a stark contrast to the three phases in 2020, five in 2015, and six in 2010. The announcement comes after a Monday review, setting the stage for what promises to be a politically charged contest.
The upcoming election will be a crucial test for the incumbent Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and the political alliances in the state. Despite shifting loyalties and alliances, both the NDA and the Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance) have maintained their prominence in Bihar’s political scene over the past three assembly elections.
A Look Back at Previous Elections:
2010 Assembly Election:
The 2010 Assembly election saw Nitish Kumar emerge as Chief Minister, leading a JD(U)-BJP coalition that secured a strong mandate. This came after 15 years of RJD rule under Lalu Yadav and Rabri Devi, which ended in 2005 when the RJD failed to secure a majority and presidential rule was imposed. The JD(U) secured 115 seats with a 22.58% vote share, while its ally, the BJP, also performed well, winning 91 seats with a 16.49% vote share. In this election, the JD(U) contested as the “elder brother” on 141 seats, while the BJP fought as the “younger brother” on 102 seats.
The opposition front, which included the then RJD-Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) alliance, managed to secure 25 seats. The RJD contested 168 seats and came in second with an 18.84% vote share, while the LJP contested 75 seats and garnered 6.74% of the votes. The Congress, contesting on 243 seats, secured four seats. This performance was described as the most disappointing since Jharkhand’s separation in 2000, with an 8.37% vote share.
2014 Lok Sabha Election & 2015 Assembly Election:
A year after contesting the 2014 Lok Sabha elections alone, the JD(U) formed a “Mahagathbandhan” with its traditional rival RJD and the Congress for the 2015 Assembly elections. This alliance achieved significant success, securing a total of 178 seats with a 41.84% vote share. The RJD emerged as the largest party with 80 seats and an 18.35% vote share, followed closely by the JD(U) with 71 seats and a 16.83% vote share. Both parties contested 101 seats each.
The Congress won 27 out of 41 seats, with a 6.66% vote share. The NDA secured a total of 58 seats and a 34.08% vote share. The BJP, contesting on 157 seats, won 53 seats, with its vote share trailing the RJD by 24.42% to 6%.
2020 Assembly Election:
In 2020, the NDA, comprising BJP, JD(U), and two smaller parties, managed to cross the majority mark of 122 seats with 125 MLAs and a 37.26% vote share. The BJP emerged as the second-largest party, winning 74 out of 110 contested seats with a 19.46% vote share. The JD(U) came in third, securing 43 out of 115 contested seats with a 15.39% vote share. Despite being the third-largest party, Nitish Kumar was entrusted with the leadership of Bihar.
The Mahagathbandhan (RJD, Congress, Left parties) put up a strong fight, securing 110 seats with a 37.23% vote share, just 0.03% less than the NDA. The RJD emerged as the largest party, winning 75 out of 144 contested seats with a 23.11% vote share. The Left parties won 16 seats with a 4.64% vote share, and the Congress won 19 out of 70 contested seats with a 9.48% vote share.
Recent Political Developments:
The past year and a half saw Nitish Kumar join the Mahagathbandhan, but the government did not last. In January 2024, Nitish Kumar returned to the NDA, forming a new JD(U)-BJP government before the Lok Sabha elections. This marks Nitish Kumar’s fourth change of alliance. Political analysts believe this shift proved beneficial in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. As “junior partners,” the JD(U) won 12 seats while the BJP secured 12 seats also. In the Lok Sabha, the NDA achieved a significant lead in 30 constituencies and 174 assembly constituencies.
The Mahagathbandhan secured 9 seats (RJD four, Congress three, Left two). In the current 243-member Bihar Assembly, Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) has 45 members, and the BJP has 78, reaching the majority mark of 122 with the support of one independent. The opposition (RJD, Congress, Left) has 114 MLAs, which is eight less than the majority.
The upcoming elections will be a significant political test for Nitish Kumar, and it remains to be seen how the shifting alliances and political dynamics will play out. The results on November 14th will undoubtedly shape the future of Bihar politics.
Source: livehindustan.com